Ahh, spring racing is almost upon us - days are getting longer, the sun starts shining, and trainers begin to unleash their top 3-year-olds chasing the Garland of Roses on the first Saturday in May. There will be short-priced favorites, long shots that no one saw coming (see below), and heartfelt stories that will make anyone tear up.
The maiden races are critical to watch this time of the year. All across the country, you will find 3-year-old maidens running for their first time to prove they belong with the top competition. You will quickly hear of any astonishing performance, which leads to heavy interest in their next outing.
Here are a few things to look for and analyze once one of these races concludes:
1) If there is a race in which a horse wins by several open lengths easily, always double-check how the horses who ran underneath perform next out. These performances can be misleading if the competition is poor.
2) If you find a horse that breaks slowly but makes up good ground during the race and ends up finishing towards the middle, watch for this horse next out. We call this "splitting the field." Remember, these horses are young, and if they are derby-bound, they are bred for more distance. Watch for the improvement of these types.
3) Purchase price does not always equal success! I've seen it year in and year out. There is a lot of money out there, and people are willing to pay a pretty penny for a beautiful horse with good conformation. Pressure will get to any horse, whether a $3m purchase or a home-bred.
I look forward to watching these races and having you all along for the ride with me! Good luck, everyone!
Justin
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